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Printer Friendly View Washington Aviation Summary - December 2011 AMR and subsidiaries American Airlines and American Eagle filed voluntary petitions for Chapter 11 reorganization in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York, and plan "to continue conducting normal business operations while they restructure their debt, costs and other obligations." The filings have no direct legal impact on American's operations outside the United States. American filed motions seeking interim relief to ensure continuing normal operations, including the ability to provide employee wages and benefits; pay for fuel under existing contracts and honor existing fuel supply, distribution and storage agreements; and assume and honor contracts relating to interline agreements. The company said $4.1 billion in unrestricted cash, short-term investments and cash generated from operations will "be more than sufficient to assure that its vendors, suppliers and other business partners will be paid timely and in full for goods and services provided during the Chapter 11 process." Debtor-in-possession financing is not anticipated....Chairman/CEO Gerard Arpey stepped down and was replaced by Thomas Horton, who will also continue to serve as President of AMR and American. "We must address our cost structure, including labor costs," said Horton. "Our very substantial cost disadvantage compared to our larger competitors, all of which restructured their costs and debt through Chapter 11, has become increasingly untenable given the accelerating impact of global economic uncertainty and resulting revenue instability, volatile and rising fuel prices, and intensifying competitive challenges. We plan to initiate further negotiations with all of our unions to reduce our labor costs to competitive levels." Arpey, who was with American for 30 years, has joined Emerald Creek Group as a Partner; the Houston-based private equity firm was founded by former Continental Chairman/CEO Larry Kellner....The bankruptcy filing came after Allied Pilots Association rejected the airlines' latest contract proposals. A tentative agreement was reached with Transport Workers Union for the dispatcher workgroup, after negotiations that began in May 2006....The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) said American sponsors four traditional pension plans with $8.3 billion in assets to cover $18.5 billion in benefits for 130,000 participants. If American were to end the plans, PBGC would be responsible for paying $17 billion in benefits; about $1 billion in benefits would be lost. PBGC has a record $26 billion deficit as a result of failed plans already assumed; its operations are financed by insurance premiums and with assets and recoveries from failed plans. Washington Aviation Summary - November 2011 A coalition of airlines, general aviation, manufacturers, consumer organizations and labor groups is opposing two initiatives in the debt-reduction plan proposed by the White House, one of which would add a new $100 departure fee to all flights, and another that would double the existing passenger security tax from $2.50 per enplanement to $5 per one-way trip in 2012, and triple the tax to $7.50 by 2017. "Policymakers should focus on increasing U.S. international competitiveness rather than viewing the industry as a collection agency," said Nicholas Calio, President and CEO of the Air Transport Association (ATA). "If we are to maintain global leadership and increase jobs in this country, we need to ensure that tax policy is focused on strengthening U.S. aviation leadership and furthering the safety and modernization of the aviation system." Members of the House of Representatives said the $100 departure fee, which could cost airlines $1 billion annually, would have a "devastating impact on the aviation industry and fails to achieve our shared goal of improving the economy and creating jobs." Washington Aviation Summary - October 2011 The Obama Administration included new aviation fees in its long-term deficit reduction plan. The proposals would impose a $100-per- departure fee on commercial airlines and corporate jets; and raise the passenger security fee from the current $2.50 per flight segment capped at $10 per round trip, to an initial $5 per flight segment, with an increase to $7.50 by 2017. The industry roundly opposes the proposals. "Airlines and passengers are being asked to pay for national security, although it clearly is a responsibility of government," said the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The Regional Airline Association (RAA) said the $100 departure fee "would cost more than regional airlines earned last year, threatening service to smaller cities." The Transport Association of America (ATA) urged legislators to oppose the proposals. In remarks to the International Aviation Club in Washington, ATA President/CEO Nicholas Calio said they are "nothing less than an all-out assault" on the industry, which is seen by some members of Congress as "low-hanging fruit" and "a cash cow." Government should view airlines as a growth enabler and strategic asset, said Calio. Citing state support for aviation in other countries, he proposed a National Airline Policy that would reduce the industry tax burden, expedite implementation of a satellite-based air traffic management system, expand access to rapidly growing global markets, and enable the industry to attract investment. Washington Aviation Summary - September 2011 Congress restored funding to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), ending a two-week partial shutdown of the agency (see also Section VI). Flights were not affected since air traffic control operated out of other funding, but 4,000 FAA workers were furloughed and some 70,000 construction workers were laid off as airport projects halted. FAA authority to collect ticket taxes ceased, but most airlines raised base fares tomatch the tax; two exceptions were Spirit Airlines and Alaska Airlines. IRS issued guidance to consumers regarding ticket tax refunds for the period. The White House said loss of the taxes cost the federal government $200 million a week. "This is a lose-lose-lose situation," said President Obama during the congressional stalemate; Congress should "take care of this [and] do what they've done 20 times since 2007." The 21st short-term funding bill expires September 16.
Washington Aviation Summary - August 2011 The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) was forced to furlough nearly 4,000 employees, issue stop-work orders on more than 150 airport projects and stop processing $2.5 billion in airport construction grants, after Congress failed to agree on an authorization extension. (See Section VI.) Employees paid from the FAA Operations account were not affected, thus air traffic controllers and others essential to air safety remained on the job....Laws authorizing airline ticket taxes expired with FAA's operating authority. All the major airlines increased fares to take advantage of the tax lapse and were chastised by Senate Democrats. Spirit, Alaska and Hawaiian passed the savings on to customers. The American Association of Airport Executives, was critical of the airlines and noted, "every week without the federal taxes in place costs the Airport and Airway Trust Fund approximately $200 million in foregone revenue." The Internal Revenue Service was working with airlines on issues relating to collection and payment of the taxes....Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood and FAA Administrator Randy Babbitt released numerous reports of airport programs affected by the impasse and said the suspension of aviation projects could lead to more than 80,000 job losses. Washington Aviation Summary - July 2011 Natural disasters in Japan, unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and the sharp rise in oil prices have slashed industry profit expectations to $4 billion this year, said the International Air Transport Association (IATA), compared to $8.6 billion forecast in March, and an $18 billion net profit recorded in 2010. On expected revenues of $598 billion, a $4 billion profit equates to a 0.7% margin, IATA said. Asia-Pacific carriers are expected to earn $2.1 billion this year ($10 billion in 2010); North American, $1.2 billion ($4.1 billion/2010); European, $500 million ($1.9 billion/2010); Middle East, $100 million ($900 million/2010); Latin American, $100 million ($900 million/2010). African carriers will post a $100 million loss in 2011....In other news, IATA Director General Giovanni Bisignani steps down July 1 and former Cathay Pacific CEO Tony Tyler takes over. Washington Aviation Summary - June 2011 The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) proposed to approve an application for antitrust immunity made by Delta and affiliates of Virgin Blue Group, now known as Virgin Australia, for joint U.S.-Australia services. The carriers revised their application after DOT tentatively denied an earlier request last September, addressing concerns that immunity would provide only limited benefit to consumers. In the new application, Virgin Australia would serve more passengers and upgrade its reservation system to ensure compatibility with Delta's system. In addition, the carriers would serve more cities and offer more capacity at the start of their alliance than originally proposed. The joint venture must begin within 18 months of a final order. Delta and Virgin Australia said they will collaborate through code sharing, coordinating route and product planning, and reciprocal frequent flyer and lounge benefits. Virgin Australia has alliances with Etihad, Air New Zealand and Australian carrier Skywest. Washington Aviation Summary - May 2011 The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) finalized an expanded passenger protection rule that will take effect in August. Airlines will be required to: reimburse passengers for bag fees if bags are lost; prominently disclose all potential fees on their websites; include all government taxes and fees in every advertised price; allow reservations, made at least seven days prior to the flight, to be held at quoted fare without payment or cancelled without penalty for at least 24 hours after reservation is made; promptly notify consumers of delays of over 30 minutes, as well as cancellations and diversions; and provide consumers involuntarily bumped from flights with up to $1,300 in compensation, with inflation adjustments every two years. The rule bans post-purchase fare increases unless due to government-imposed taxes or fees. The current ban on lengthy tarmac delays will cover foreign airlines' operations at U.S. airports; there will be a four-hour hard time limit on tarmac delays for international flights of U.S. and foreign airlines. DOT will issue a supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking later this year requiring, among other things, that ancillary fees be displayed at all points of sale. Airline groups say the new rule will lead to increased cancellations, higher ticket prices and passenger inconvenience. Washington Aviation Summary - April 2011 Political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa is estimated to have cut international traffic by about 1% in February, reports the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Middle East airlines saw demand growth fall from 12% in January to 8.4%. A capacity increase of 11% resulted in a load factor of 72.2%. Political unrest in Bahrain, Yemen and Syria is expected to have an impact on the region's markets in March; these three countries represent about 6% of Middle Eastern traffic and 0.3% of global capacity. Africa saw traffic fall by 1.3%, from February 2010. Against capacity expansion of 6.9%, load factors fell to 60.4%. Egypt and Tunisia account for 18% of the African market and 0.6% of worldwide capacity. Libya is a further 3% of the African market and 0.1% of global capacity. The impact of political unrest has been severe with traffic falling by 13.1% compared to January levels. The earthquake and its aftermath in Japan will mean a further dampening of demand from March, said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA Director General and CEO. "Industry fundamentals are good. But extraordinary circumstances have made the first quarter of 2011 very difficult." Washington Aviation Summary - March 2011 FAA Predicts One Billion Passengers by 2021. U.S. airlines will reach the one billion passengers-per-year mark by 2021, according to the FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011-2031, two years earlier than the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) predicted last year. Revenue passenger miles will rise from 787 billion in 2010 to 1.7 trillion in 2031. The number of passengers traveling on U.S. airlines will increase by 3.5% from last year to 737.4 million in 2011, with projected growth of 2.8% each year to 1.3 billion by 2031. Total landings and takeoffs at FAA towered airports will decrease slightly in 2011, then grow at an average annual rate of 1.6% each year, reaching 69.4 million in 2031. . . . Worldwide, there will be 3.3 billion air travelers by 2014, up from 2.5 billion in 2009, said the International Air Transport Association (IATA), and 38 million tons of air cargo will be carried, up from 26 million in 2009. Of the 800 million new travelers expected in 2014, 360 million (45%) will travel on Asia Pacific routes; of those, 214 million will be associated with China (181 million domestic, 33 million international). The U.S. will remain the largest single country market for domestic and international passengers. WashingtonAviation Summary - February 2011 International tourist arrivals were up by almost 7% last year, following a 4% decline in 2009, reports the World Tourism Organization, an agency of the United Nations. Worldwide, the number reached 935 million, up 58 million from 2009 and 22 million more than pre-crisis peak levels of 2008 (913 million). International tourist arrivals into Asia reached a new record at 204 million last year, up from 181 million in 2009. Africa (+6% to 49 million), the only region to show positive figures in 2009, maintained growth during 2010. In the Middle East (+14% to 60 million) almost all destinations grew by 10% or more. In Europe (+3% to 471 million) recovery was slower due to air traffic disruption caused by the volcanic eruption in Iceland and economic uncertainty. The Americas (+8% to 151 million) rebounded from the decline in 2009, with strongest growth in South America (+10%). In terms of expenditure abroad, emerging economies continued to drive growth: China (+17%), the Russian Federation (+26%), Saudi Arabia (+28%) and Brazil (+52%). Of traditional source markets, Australia (+9%), Canada (+8%), Japan (+7%) and France (+4%) rebounded, while more modest growth at 2% came from the U.S., Germany and Italy; expenditure abroad from the UK was down by 4%. UNWTO forecasts global tourism to grow 4% to 5% in 2011. Washington Aviation Summary- January 2011 The world's airlines will see a net profit of $15.1 billion in 2010, and $9.1 billion in 2011, said the International Air Transport Association (IATA), revised from September forecasts of $8.9 billion and $5.3 billion, respectively. Net margins remain weak at 2.7% for 2010 and falling to 1.5% in 2011. Air cargo demand deteriorated from previously forecast growth of 19.8%, to 18.5%, limiting yield growth to 7% (below previously forecast 7.9%); since May, overall volumes fell by 5%. The world's five largest airlines, by market capitalization, are now in Asia (Air China, Singapore, Cathay Pacific, China Southern) and Latin America (LATAM). Exceptionally adverse weather conditions in Europe and the U.S. at year-end resulted in travel chaos, as did the Icelandic volcano last spring, said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA Director General and CEO. "It's time to evaluate a long list of government imposed industry handicaps, including excessive taxation, out-dated ownership restrictions, over-regulation where market forces could do better, under-investment in infrastructure and generally poor regulation of monopoly suppliers." IATA is launching Vision 2050 in February with a mission to build a vision for a successful and sustainable industry in four decades. Washington Aviation Summary- December 2010 On October 29, UK police found a printer cartridge containing explosive materials on a UPS aircraft that had landed at East Midlands Airport en route from Cologne to Chicago. A similar device located and identified in Dubai was being transported by FedEx to Chicago. Both explosive devices originated in Yemen and are believed to have been made and dispatched by Yemen-based Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the group responsible for the attempted downing of an aircraft bound for Detroit last Christmas. Authorities said the devices were intended to detonate in mid-air. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) commended involved governments for swift, coordinated and targeted response and called on regulators worldwide to coordinate security responses, reinforcing efforts by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Washington Aviation Summary- November 2010 U.S. and Japanese authorities granted antitrust immunity (ATI) to two alliances, oneworld members American Airlines and Japan Airlines (JAL), and Star members United, Continental and All Nippon Airways (ANA), enabling each to establish joint ventures and combine their transpacific networks. The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) granted preliminary immunity, subject to final approval after a comment period. In related news, the U.S. and Japan signed an open skies accord that was initialed last December (see also Section VII). Washington Aviation Summary- October 2010 The global airline industry will see a profit of $8.9 billion in 2010, reports the International Air Transport Association (IATA), in a revision of its June forecast of $2.5 billion. The improved outlook is being driven by a combination of factors: increasing demand and disciplined capacity management are leading to sharply stronger yields pushing revenues higher, and costs remain relatively stable. All regions except Africa are showing improved prospects. IATA estimates that profitability will drop to $5.3 billion next year, as the impact of the post-recession bounce from re-stocked inventories will dissipate. Consumer spending is not expected to pick up the slack as joblessness remains high and consumer confidence falls in Europe and North America. Travel and freight markets will remain stronger in Asia, the Middle East and South America. Slower growth is expected to keep costs in check and oil prices are expected to remain constant at $79/barrel. Industry growth is expected to fall back to 5%, in line with the historical trend. But a surge of aircraft deliveries (1,400) will fuel capacity expansion of 6%, in excess of expected demand improvements. Falling load factors will remove the possibility for further yield improvement leading to a more challenging revenue environment. Washington Aviation Summary- September 2010 International scheduled passenger traffic in July rose 9.2% on year, freight by 22.7%, reports the International Air Transport Association (IATA), but slowed compared to June's increases of 11.6% (passenger) and 26.6% (cargo). Global passenger traffic in July was 3% higher than pre-crisis levels of early 2008, cargo 4%. Improving demand is an important component of the recovery, but anticipated 2010 profit of $2.5 billion is only a 0.5% return on revenues, said IATA Director General and CEO Giovanni Bisignani. "The financial situation of the industry remains fragile"; a change in industry structure is needed "to secure sustainable profitability at levels exceeding the 7-8% cost of capital," and all partners in the value chain must work together to find solutions to reduce costs. The pace of recovery will likely slow, said Bisignani, as the jobless economic recovery is keeping consumer confidence fragile, particularly in North America and Europe. He noted the need for a regulatory structure "free of outdated ownership restrictions and able to facilitate opportunities for consolidation globally-something that other industries take for granted." Washington Aviation Summary- August 2010 The U.S. Department of Transportation granted antitrust immunity to American Airlines and its oneworld partners-British Airways, Iberia, Finnair and Royal Jordanian-for an integrated global alliance, finalizing a February 13 tentative decision. The venture, which also won European Union (EU) clearance, "will be able to compete more vigorously with similar immunized alliances Star and SkyTeam," said DOT. The applicants were required to make four Heathrow slot-pairs available to competitors for new U.S.-London service-two pairs for Boston-London service and two for service from any other U.S. cities. DOT required changes to the alliance to ensure capacity growth. The carriers also must submit traffic data, implement the alliance within 18 months and resubmit the alliance agreements for review within five years. Under the joint business agreement, the carriers will cooperate commercially on flights between the United States, Mexico and Canada, and the EU, Switzerland and Norway while continuing to operate as separate legal entities. They will expand their code share arrangements on flights within and beyond the U.S. and EU. Washington Aviation Summary- July 2010 Airlines are expected to post a profit of $2.5 billion in 2010, reported the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the industry's first profit since 2007 after a decade in which they lost a cumulative $47 billion and a major improvement over the March forecast of a $2.8 billion loss. However, warned Giovanni Bisignani, IATA Director General and CEO, the profit represents a net margin of just 0.5% and a major part of the global industry is still posting big losses. IATA forecasts world passenger traffic will grow by 7.1%, cargo by 18.5%, yields by 4.5% for both cargo and passenger, revenues by 13%. Some 500 of 1,340 aircraft scheduled to join the fleet in 2010 are replacements, the rest new capacity; average demand improvement of 10.2% (passenger and cargo) will be met with a 5.4% increase in capacity, supporting load factors which remained near record levels for most of the first quarter. Premium travel was rebounding at an annualized growth rate of 20% over the first quarter and economy travel is now back to pre-recession levels. Washington Aviation Summary- June 2010 Global passenger demand slumped by 2.4% in April, reports the International Air Transport Association (IATA), as a result of massive cancellations due to ash cloud from an Icelandic volcano. European carriers posted an 11.7% demand drop in April (compared to 6.2% increase in March). North American carriers posted a 1.9% decline (7.8% increase in March), primarily due to impact of ash crisis on North Atlantic routes. Asia-Pacific carriers saw strong growth slow to 3.5% (12.9% growth in March). Middle Eastern airlines recorded the strongest traffic growth at 13% (25.9% increase in March). African carriers saw recovery slow to 8.6% growth (16.9% growth in March). Latin American carriers posted a 1.2% increase (4.6% growth in March). The recovery pace of international scheduled cargo traffic slowed to 25.2% growth (down from 28.1% improvement in March). Looking ahead, IATA challenged Europe to reform its air traffic management. "The ash crisis was an embarrassing wake-up call for European governments. We need leadership to deliver the Single European Sky, fair passenger rights legislation and continent-wide coordination," said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA Director General and CEO. "Unfortunately, we are trading ash for two additional uncertainties-strikes and a growing currency crisis-both of which are also focused on Europe. . . It's a tough competitive world. Airlines need to reduce costs to be competitive. Labor must realize that their pay checks are supported by the performance of the company. The middle of a very fragile recovery is not the time for striking. This mentality is divorced from reality," said Bisignani. Washington Aviation Summary- May 2010 More than 100,000 flights were cancelled and some 10 million passengers were stranded, when airspace was shut down across Northern and Central Europe for six days due to a cloud of ash from an Icelandic volcano. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimated the event cost airlines $1.7 billion in revenue, and the European Union (EU) estimated total industry losses could reach $3 billion. Washington Aviation Summary- April 2010 Global passenger demand was up 9.5% in February, compared to February 2009, and cargo demand grew 26.5%, reports the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which also noted that February 2009 marked the bottom of the cycle for passenger traffic during the global economic recession. Passenger demand must recover a further 1.4% to return to pre-crisis levels. Washington Aviation Summary- March 2010 The U.S. Department of Transportation proposed to grant antitrust immunity (ATI) to American Airlines and oneworld partners British Airways, Iberia, Finnair and Royal Jordanian to form a global alliance. The alliance would include a "metal neutral" joint venture among American, British Airways and Iberia, enabling those carriers to operate the most efficient schedules without regard to which carrier they select to operate the flight. As a condition of approval, DOT proposed that the applicants make four pairs of slots available to competitors for new U.S.-London Heathrow service. DOT also would require changes to the agreement to ensure capacity growth, and require that carriers submit traffic data and implement the proposed alliance within 18 months of a final decision. In its show-cause order, DOT tentatively found that granting ATI to oneworld would provide travelers and shippers with lower fares on more routes, increased services, better schedules and reduced travel and connection times; and the alliance would create competition with the Star and SkyTeam alliances, which already have been granted immunity. The February 13 notice provides 45 days for objections. ATI approval is still under review by the European Union (EU), which said it has received commitments from British Airways, American and Iberia to alleviate competition concerns. Sir Richard Branson, Virgin Atlantic Chairman and tenacious foe of the oneworld request for ATI, called the DOT decision a "kick in the teeth" for consumers. Washington Aviation Summary- February 2010 President Obama said security reviews he ordered from intelligence, homeland security and law enforcement agencies after the failed Christmas Day attack reveal "human and systemic failures . . . This was not a failure to collect intelligence; it was a failure to integrate and understand the intelligence that we already had." A failure of our intelligence community to connect the dots fed into shortcomings in the watch-listing system, said the President, which resulted in the suspect not being placed on the 'No Fly' list, thereby allowing him to board the plane. President Obama directed the intelligence community to immediately begin assigning specific responsibility for investigating all leads on high-priority threats. Intelligence reports, especially those involving potential threats to the United States, must be distributed more rapidly and more widely, and the analytical process must be strengthened. He ordered an immediate effort to strengthen criteria used to add names to terrorist watch lists, especially the 'No Fly' list. He directed agency heads to establish internal accountability reviews and national security staff to monitor their efforts. Washington Aviation Summary- January 2010 White House Reviews Security Procedures After Failed Terror Attempt. Following a failed explosion onboard Northwest Flight 253, en route from Amsterdam to Detroit on Christmas Day, the White House ordered immediate reviews of the U.S. watch list system and all screening policies, technologies and procedures related to air travel. The father of the alleged terrorist earlier had warned U.S. officials in Africa about his son's extremist views, confirmed President Obama. "A systemic failure has occurred," he said. "This information was passed to a component of our intelligence community, but was not effectively distributed so as to get the suspect's name on a no-fly list." The suspect, a Nigerian national, was said to be trained and supplied by an al-Qaeda groupin Yemen. The group claimed responsibility for the attempted attack, saying it was in retaliation for U.S. air strikes against them. Washington Aviation Summary- December 2009 DOT Convenes "Future of U.S. Aviation" Forum. Ray LaHood, Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), invited aviation stakeholders to a closed-door "Future of U.S. Aviation" forum, where the Air Transport Association (ATA) called for: no new taxes and fees; fully funded and accelerated modernization of the air traffic control system; enhanced oversight of energy markets to curb excessive speculation and volatility of oil prices; elimination of restrictions on airlines' ability to operate efficiently in the global marketplace; and a global sectoral approach to climate change developed through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). In a letter to LaHood, US Airways Chairman Doug Parker, who could not attend the forum, wrote, "Our request [is] 'Do No Harm' . . . do not impose any additional taxes, fees or unfunded mandates on this already over-taxed industry [and] allow us the ability to fix our industry through rational business decisions and actions and self-help mechanisms." Union officials said they are not seeking re-regulation, but want tighter barriers to entry for low-cost startups, which sometimes drive air fares below cost, causing economic chaos for mainline carriers. LaHood will create a federal advisory committee of government and industry stakeholders to seek solutions to challenges facing U.S. airlines. Kevin Mitchell, Business Travel Coalition Chairman, and Bob Crandall, former American Airlines Chairman, urged LaHood to allocate the first two months of the committee's efforts to "develop public-policy objectives and a framework for effective analysis and oversight such that it does not take a tragedy outside Buffalo to recognize a flawed regional airline business model; or to identify that there is significant safety and security risk when U.S. aircraft are sent to third-world countries to be overhauled by workers whose backgrounds cannot be verified, who are not tested for drugs and alcohol, who rely on pictures in manufacturers' manuals to perform repairs because they cannot read detailed English instructions and whose oversight by FAA and TSA [Transportation Security Administration] is uneven, or non-existent." Washington Aviation Summary - November 2009 International travel to the United States will "regain its footing" in 2010, predicts the U.S. Department of Commerce. Reflective of the current global economic environment, international travel is expected to decline by 8% this year, with a 3% rebound projected for the U.S. by the end of 2010, followed by 5% annual increases through 2013. This year, 22 of the top 25 arrival markets will post declines, with the largest from Taiwan (-17%), Ireland (-14%), Sweden (-13%), Mexico (-12%), United Kingdom (-12 %), and Netherlands (-10%). The U.S. hosted a record 58 million international visitors in 2008. International arrivals are predicted to reach 64 million by 2013. Washington Aviation Summary - October 2009 International scheduled passenger demand declined by 1.1% in August, an improvement on the 2.9% decline in July, reports the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Compared to the low point of March 2009, seasonally adjusted passenger demand improved by 6%, but traffic levels remain 5% below May 2008 when the fall in demand began. Freight demand fell by 9.6% in August, an improvement over the 11.3% drop in July. Compared to the December 2008 low point, seasonally adjusted freight demand improved by 12%, but remains exceptionally weak at 16% below April 2008 levels when the fall in demand began. Average fares continue to be depressed (-22% for premium seats and -18% for economy). To match capacity with demand, airlines have reduced daily aircraft utilization, said IATA. Average daily hours for the global Boeing 777 fleet dropped by 2.7% to 11.1 hours per day through the first eight months of the year. Lower utilization helps load factors, but spreading fixed asset costs over fewer hours in the air pushes up unit costs. IATA predicts airline losses will reach $11 billion in 2009, after earlier loss projections of -$9 billion. Revenues for the year are expected to fall by $80 billion (15%) to $455 billion, compared with 2008 levels. IATA also revised 2008 estimates from a loss of $10.4 billion to a loss of $16.8 billion. For 2010, IATA anticipates average international passenger growth of just over 4%, compared to an expected full-year decline in 2009 of almost 5%. Washington Aviation Summary - September 2009 The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA) reached a collective bargaining agreement after three years of negotiations. A mediation process produced an agreement that is subject to ratification by union members. An independent arbitration team released a decision on five issues, including compensation, which are not subject to ratification. The agreement provides employees with greater flexibility in work schedules, childcare support and a new grievance review process. It gives FAA "flexibility to more effectively redeploy labor to congested airports using Controller Incentive Pay," said FAA, and "restores a more equitable pay standard to benefit new hires as well as veterans nearing retirement." Associated costs will be phased in over the three years of the contract. Washington Aviation Summary - August 2009 The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) granted final approval for antitrust immunity (ATI) to Continental for its participation in the Star Alliance, and allowed Air Canada, Lufthansa, United and Continental to place a portion of their international air services within a new joint venture, to be called Atlantic Plus-Plus. Under the venture, the carriers will jointly arrange capacity, sales and marketing, and share revenues in international markets. DOT concluded the joint venture would support increased levels of service in international markets served by the carriers, give consumers more travel options and shorter travel times and reduce fares. The United States has open skies aviation agreements with the home countries of the carriers involved in the decision. Following comments from the Department of Justice and other parties on its April 7 tentative decision, DOT placed new limitations (carve outs) on the immunity in several markets to preserve competition: four transatlantic markets, four U.S.-Canada markets and all U.S.-Beijing markets. Star carriers may continue to serve these routes, but will not be covered by ATI. The carriers are required to implement the new joint venture within 18 months, and provide annual reports to DOT about implementation of their alliance agreements. They remain subject to antitrust laws with respect to domestic service. DOT first granted immunity to Star partners in 1996, when it approved a United-Lufthansa alliance. Other Star members are Austrian, British Midland, LOT Polish Airlines, SAS, Swiss and TAP Air Portugal. Washington Aviation Summary - July 2009 The global airline industry is expected to lose $9 billion this year, reports the International Air Transport Association (IATA), nearly double the March estimate of a $4.7 billion loss. IATA also revised its 2008 loss estimate of $8.5 billion to -$10.4 billion. Revenues are forecast to decline an unprecedented 15% ($80 billion), from $528 billion in 2008 to $448 billion in 2009. Air cargo demand is expected to decline by 17%. In 2009, airlines are forecast to carry 33.3 million freight tons, compared to 40.1 million tons in 2008. Passenger demand is expected to contract by 8% to 2.06 billion, compared to 2.24 billion in 2008. Revenue impact of falling demand will be further exaggerated by large falls in yields-11% for cargo and 7% for passenger. Losses forecast for carriers worldwide: North American, -$1 billion; European, -$1.8 billion; Asia-Pacific, -$3.3 billion; Middle East, -$1.5 billion; Latin American, -$900 million; and African, -$500 million. Washington Aviation Summary - June 2009
President Obama's choice to lead the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Randolph Babbitt, was confirmed by the Senate. A former Air Line Pilots Association President, Babbitt said his priorities as FAA Administrator would include funding the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen); resolving air traffic controller labor disputes; and improving landing techniques that would reduce fuel consumption, noise and congestion. The Senate also approved John Porcari as Deputy Secretary of the Department of Transportation (DOT); he has served as Secretary of Maryland DOT. Washington Aviation Summary - May 2009
In a rapidly evolving situation, at least nine countries officially reported cases of influenza A/H1N1, said the World Health Organization (WHO), and the death rate climbed. Most of the cases were in Mexico, followed by the U.S. WHO raised the level of influenza pandemic alert to Phase 5, with 6 being a full pandemic, and advised countries to activate pandemic preparedness plans. WHO advised no restriction of regular travel or border closures, but advised sick people who are ill to delay international travel. Several nations suspended flights to Mexico. Some nations also urged avoidance of travel to the U.S., which Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said was unwarranted. Washington Aviation Summary - April 2009
The global air transport industry can expect losses of $4.7 billion in 2009, reports the International Air Transport Association (IATA), revised from a December forecast of a $2.5 billion loss. Industry revenues are expected to fall by 12.0% ($62 billion) to $467 billion. In the post-9/11 decline, revenues fell by 7% ($23 billion) over the 2000-2002 period. Passenger traffic is expected to contract by 5.7% this year, cargo by 13% and yields by 4.3%. In January, passenger traffic was down 5.6%, with premium off 16.7%; cargo traffic fell 23.2%. IATA also revised its forecast losses for 2008 from $5 billion to $8.5 billion. "This is a resilient industry capable of catalyzing economic growth. But we are structurally sick. Washington Aviation Summary - March 2009
The $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 provides for $1.1 billion in Airport Improvement Program (AIP) funding to be made available by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for "shovel-ready" projects this year, and provides federal income tax breaks to those who buy airport revenue bonds. The stimulus plan also includes $1 billion for the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) for procurement and installation of airport baggage screening and checkpoint security equipment. Washington Aviation Summary - February 2009
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released scheduled traffic results for December and full-year 2008. In December global cargo traffic plummeted by 22.6% compared to December 2007, while passenger traffic fell 4.6% with load factor at 73.8%. For full-year 2008, international cargo traffic was down 4%, passenger traffic increased 1.6% and international load factor was at 75.9%. Washington Aviation Summary - January 2009
Ray LaHood was selected by President-Elect Barack Obama to be the next Secretary of Transportation. The seven-term Congressman (R-Ill.) served on the House Appropriations Committee and is expected to play a key role in obtaining bipartisan support for infrastructure revitalization programs planned by the new Administration. Washington Aviation Summary - December 2008
Global passenger traffic declined 2.9% and cargo traffic dropped 7.7% in September, compared to the same month in 2007, reports the International Air Transport Association (IATA), due to the economic recession. Load factors tumbled by 4.4% from 79.2% in August to 74.8% in September. Washington Aviation Summary - November 2008
Saying the merger of Delta and Northwest "is likely to produce substantial and credible efficiencies that will benefit U.S. consumers and is not likely to substantially lessen competition," the U.S. Department of Justice Antitrust Division closed its six-month investigation and approved the arrangement. Washington Aviation Summary - October 2008
The global airline industry is expected to post losses of $5.2 billion in 2008. The revised forecast, issued by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), is based on an average crude oil price of $113 per barrel ($140 for jet fuel). Washington Aviation Summary - September 2008
Cargo and passenger traffic continued to slow in June, reports the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Cargo contracted by 0.8% compared to June 2007 and passenger demand growth fell to 3.8%, compared to 7.4%. Capacity growth of 5.5% outstripped demand, pushing the passenger load factor down to 77.6%, compared to 78.8% last June. Washington Aviation Summary - August 2008
Amid the current environment of high oil prices and falling demand, airlines have introduced capacity cuts that have a severe impact on employees, passengers, airports and communities. Industry leaders are debating whether a return to some form of regulation is needed. Washington Aviation Summary - July 2008
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) called on governments, industry partners and labor to address the fuel crisis, forecasting a potential loss of $6.1 billion for 2008 based on an average oil price of $135 per barrel. Washington Aviation Summary - June 2008
Year-on-year international passenger demand grew by 3% in April, reports the International Air Transport Association (IATA), or 4% with seasonal and other adjustments, compared to 6.7% growth for the first four months of 2007. Washington Aviation Summary - May 2008
Aloha, ATA, Skybus and Eos ceased operations in April, charter operator Champion Air announced it will end operations on May 31 and Frontier filed for bankruptcy protection but continued operating. Washington Aviation Summary - April 2008
The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) and the European Commission (EC) announced a joint research project to determine how alliances have affected competition in transatlantic markets and the potential impact of the open skies agreement between the United States and the European Union (EU), set to take effect March 30, 2008. Washington Aviation Summary - March 2008
For full-year 2007, worldwide passenger traffic rose 7.4% and cargo traffic was up 4.3%. This year, demand rose 4.3% in January, year-on-year, but was down sharply from the 6.7% growth of December. Washington Aviation Summary - February 2008
The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) proposed a newlanding fee structure that would permit airports to impose a per movement charge, in addition to current weight-based runway charges, and increase fees during congested periods to encourage airlines to operate at other times, use secondary or reliever airports or "up-gauge" aircraft. Washington Aviation Summary - January 2008
The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) selected US Airways to inaugurate U.S.-China service (Philadelphia-Beijing) and awarded additional U.S.-China passenger flights to American (Chicago-Beijing), Continental (Newark-Shanghai) and Northwest (Detroit-Shanghai), all to begin on or about March 25, 2009.
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